Mr. PH Ravikumar, MD, Capri Global Capital Ltd on the RBI’s Q2 Monetary Policy Review 2013-14

The RBI measures are in line with market expectations and in fact market is relieved that the Repo Rate increase is not higher than the 25 basis points announced. The measures to cut MSF by 25 basis points is to ensure that cost of liquidity is kept lower. In that sense with the change in regime at RBI, RBI is now looking at growth imperatives as well. Already with 0.5% of NDTL as overnight repo eligibility, another 0.5% of NDTL as export refinance and the now announced increase of term repo for 7 to 14 days eligibility (from 0.25% to 0.50% of NDTL), RBI is ensuring sufficient liquidity particularly during current festival season and as we enter the busy season.

With wholesale inflation being under 7% and consumer inflation stubbornly ay 9% plus levels with food inflation at decades high of 18% plus! there is no way interest rates are slated to come down, notwithstanding infusion of 14,000 crore plus infusion as capital in PSU banks.

One only hopes that the current somewhat benign crude oil prices, better control on CAD continues so that the external Rupee value is stable. All in all credit/funds flow to agri and SME sectors has to be ensured as one sees some signs of revival in services sector and good growth in agricultural sector.

The Reserve Bank of India’s move to revise the repo rate upwards by 25bps has not been received well by the real estate development fraternity, which hoped for a rate cut or a status quo in a market scenario where banks and financial institutions have already started increasing lending rates for home loans. Given the festive season is traditionally the period where the real estate sales are driven up by sentiment, this revision is not welcome; reviewed objectively though, the decision of the Central Bank is justified given its primary focus on taming inflation. In the short term with financial institutions revising interest rates and on the back of already high real estate costs, demand for real estate will continue to be depressed.

Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/more-policy-rate-hike-likely-in-december/article5286073.ece

Chennai Real Estate Market Scenario

In contrast to what was been witnessed in many of the more volatile cities over the last couple of years, Chennai's residential property market saw steady growth in terms of pricing, demand and supply. Chennai's residential property market is predominantly end user driven. The absence of overt speculation has also ensured that developer has move pricing of homes in a stable and gradual manner. Unnatural spiking has therefore been successfully kept at bay.

Demand scenario

Chennai is known for its conservative mind-set, which reflects visibly on its residential property market trends, as well. For instance, home buyers in Chennai have historically been driven by location over and above most other considerations, and this had put definite limits on the demand and potential for community living in the city.

Chennai is still a predominantly end user-driven market, with 60-65% of the buyers being people purchasing for self-use. Residential space investors in Chennai tend to take a long term view, the modus operandi being to look at off-loading their holdings within an average time-span of 5-7 years. This attribute further strengthens the market's end-user behaviour.

Increased job security in the city has definitely helped the market to maintain buoyancy and a positive outlook. It’s becoming increasingly evident that Chennai's residential real estate market is significantly dependent on the IT/ITES sector. With employment stability in this sector looking good, demand for homes has now reached a comfortable and dependable growth trajectory from which developers are taking their market cues.

Pricing Trends

Chennai is a stable market wherein residential property prices move in accordance with actual sales. Price volatility due to other factors has been completely excluded. As a result, prices have not dropped in most projects over the last few years.

Also, residential property in Chennai is driven more by locations than by specifications and amenities. The scarcity of land parcels and also the cost of premium FSI within the city have create relentless upward pressure on residential product pricing. This has resulted in the available options in these locations shooting way past the budgets of even the upper middle class. Prices for standard apartments with minimum or no amenities within Chennai city can range from Rs. 1.5-5 crore.

Chennai's residential market is witnessing considerable demand in the affordable segment - specifically for units in the price range of Rs. 35-60 lakh - in locations which offer an acceptable degree of social infrastructure.

Residential developer who want to keep the cost of units in their projects affordable need to look at suburban locations with limited infrastructure. The only other option available to such developers is to cut the unit sizes so that they can include some degree of decent infrastructure. Lack of locations with good infrastructure has hindered the supply of land, which has resulted in pricing going upwards whereas the pricing remains stable or stagnant in locations which lack good social infrastructure.

The need of the hour in Chennai's residential real estate market is a good supply of land so that new locations can be opened up and the requisite social infrastructure and other utilities can be put in place. If this happens, we will see more innovation in residential products, because developers will need to set themselves apart with uniqueness and differentiation in their products.

Upcoming residential areas to watch

I.                North Chennai:

North Chennai is a real estate market that is waiting to happen. For now it is the preserve of the local residents who drive the demand for housing unlike elsewhere in Chennai – the West and the South, which are the focus of attention of home buyers. This part of Chennai comprising Kolathur, Korattur, Madhavaram, Perambur, Puzhal, Thiruvottriyur, Tondiarpet and Villivakkam is predominantly a middle income group market. Projects offering houses under Rs 50 lakh are in demand with houses in the 700-1,200 sq.ft range, according to a report by the property portal, IndiaProperty.com.

North Chennai accounts for about one-sixth of the total property development in the city. With the implementation of major infrastructure projects including that on the Outer Ring Road, Chennai-Ennore Port Connectivity project, and the metro rail project connectivity will improve and catalyse real estate development and demand. Perambur, Tondiarpet and Kolathur and major residential areas and Madhavaram is a fast growing residential hub that has attracted the attention of developers, said the report.

The north Chennai skyline is beginning to change with a number of large-scale properties setting up base there. More builders are coming to north Chennai as several of these areas have been merged with the Chennai Corporation.

The population here is also dependent on public sector and large industrial enterprises for employment. This is also one reason that North Chennai does not see significant office space development, most of which is concentrated in the South.

The price of land is cheaper by 20 per cent in the north prompting several builders to develop properties in far flung areas such as Red Hills. Residents do not mind the distance for the sake of affordable housing, said Mr. P. Manishankar, president of Federation of Flats and Housing Promoters Association.

R. Kumar, managing director of Navin Housing and Properties, said the trend of luxury apartments was catching up in areas such as Sembium and Tondiarpet. Better connectivity and improved infrastructure are attracting more people to the northern suburbs. “In north Chennai, people can buy flats at two-third of the rates prevailing in south Chennai,” he said.

The price of an apartment ranges from Rs. 3,500 per sq. ft. to Rs. 6,500 per sq. ft. depending on the location. A majority of the customers are first-time buyers, said S. Senthil Kumar, former president of North Chennai Flat Promoters Association.

M. R. Nazeerudeen, immediate past president of Chennai Real Estate Agents Association, said: “One of the most popular areas for builders now is Kolathur. Though the number of high-rise apartments is much lesser, budget homes are available.”

Proximity of Kolathur and Madhavaram to Inner Ring Road, easy access to areas like Anna Nagar and infrastructure development such as new bus terminus and grade separators have acted in favour of these areas.

D. Viswanathan, a builder, who has two ongoing projects, entered Madhavaram five years ago because the area had quality groundwater and was close to areas such as Parry’s Corner and Perambur.

II.               Madhya Kailash ' Sholinagnallur

This stretch is witnessing a clear supply-demand mismatch, with demand outstripping supply. With new employment being generated in this corridor and corresponding absorption of IT space, this area and its peripheries are witnessing extremely healthy demand for residential property. Its proximity to the city adds to the appeal of this area, which will see good appreciation over the coming years. Encouragingly (and in contrast to other parts of OMR) all completed projects here are fully occupied.

III.             Velachery

Velachery is seeing consistent growth, because it is one of the few areas which are seeing holistic and self-sustaining development. With malls and other social infrastructure improving, Velachery is definitely next in line for good appreciation. In fact, near-lying areas such as Medavakkam, Pallikarnai, Pallavaram, Thoriapakkam, the 200 ft. MMRD Road and Rajakilpakkam are already experiencing the positive fallout effect of Velachery's growth as a residential property destination. These areas are also witnessing good absorption and capital appreciation. There is also significant demand for homes in Porur along the NH4 corridor up to Urapakkam on the GST Road.

New Trends in the market

There has, so far, been no scope for the growth of large-sized township projects within the city. Chennaites had been showing an unyielding preference towards living within the CBD because of the dearth of good schools, convenience stores, entertainment and restaurants in other areas. Developers had been more than happy to construct projects of 12-30 units with limited or no amenities, little or no green cover and extremely restricted open spaces.

In the coming months, Chennai will see a major change in this aspect, with a string of township projects by developers of national stature under execution and nearing completion. These township projects have minimal plot coverage, which paves the way for large green cover and ‘lung space' within the project. This is an added incentive to opt for community living, which was largely unheard-of until as late as 2006.

The new game changers in the Chennai residential real estate space are generous landscaping, serene environment, schools within the campus, big club houses, health club facilities for both indoor and outdoor sports, multiplexes in the vicinity, health care, restaurants and large swimming pools.

As a result, community living in the true sense is finally going to emerge in Chennai. Once these large projects are fully executed, we will see a decisive forward momentum in the concept of large, well-equipped residential communities in Chennai.

(Sources: Times of India: Sep 9, Oct 11, 2013, Business Line: July 26, August 10, 2013, Moneycontrol.com: Aug 2013)

Recent Trends in PE investments in Real Estate sector in India

The PE investments in real estate was recorded at $276 million (around Rs 1,638 crore) in first half of 2013 as compared to $514 million (around Rs 3,050 crore) in the same period last year. The decline in the quantum of PERE investment was essentially due to less number deals (13 in H1 2013) as the average ticket size of deals remained same.

Consultancy firm Cushman and Wakefield attributed the drop to the volatility in the market, including slower growth of the Indian economy, political stalemates and depreciation of the rupee. While, there is a strong investment sentiment for PERE transactions in India, they display a reflection of the market sentiments, where funds are looking at only embarking on projects with strong fundamentals.

Even though private equity investment in the Indian real realty has fallen nearly 50 per cent to $276 million in the first half of 2013 due to lack of good projects and weak sentiment, foreign investors are still bullish on the sector. PE funds continue to show keen interest in the market with a number of deals in discussion.

“Investors are willing to invest in real estate; however they are exploring the market for right real estate projects. We anticipate that in the next few quarters, after some regulatory and politico-economic environment are regularised, the momentum in real estate will pick up throwing open more investible options for the investors,” said Sanjay Dutt, Executive Managing Director of South Asia operations, C&W. He added, currently, it was estimated that around $2 billion is ready to be deployed in the real estate sector of the Indian market. The fund raising environment (domestic and offshore) has consistently improved with more quality capital available for the sponsors with demonstrated track record.

According to property consulting firm Cushman and Wakefield about $2 billion (Rs 11,854 crore) is available with private equity firms ready to be deployed in real estate in the next one year, but PE funds want to put in money only in those projects with strong fundamentals. According to Sanjay Dutt, despite the slowdown in the construction market and the reduced number of investible projects in India, real estate is still the fourth most-invested sector by private equity funds.

“We anticipate that in the next few quarters, after some regulatory and politico-economic environment are regularised, the momentum in real estate will pick up throwing open more investible options for the investors,” he said.

So far in 2013, the highest value PE investment was $131.6 million in Pune, followed by $67.5 million in Mumbai, $38.8 million in the National Capital Region, and $16.9 million in Bangalore.

Even data from Venture Intelligence shows that private equity-Real Estate firms made 13 investments (amounting to $318 million across 12 deals with disclosed values) during the quarter ended June 2013. The volume of investments perked up significantly from the seven investments in the same period in the previous year (which witnessed $172 million being invested across six transactions with disclosed values) and also the eight investments (worth $569 million) during the Jan-Mar 2013 quarter.

However, there is a strong growing trend towards investments in ready office space. The growing stability of the market is reflected by the continuous growth of the core investors (number and value) with over $1.3 billion (Rs 7,705 crore) invested in ready office space during the last three years.

Some recent marquee deals/developments in PE investments:

•          Pune witnessed transactions such as the Panchshil Realty and Ireo Management Ltd SEZ by Blackstone for $75.9 million (Rs 4.5 billion).

•          Ascendas Trust’s Rs 600 crore (about $110 million) acquisition of 2 million sq. ft of office space in Hyderabad from Phoenix Group was the largest investment during the second quarter of FY13. This was followed by Xander’s Rs 280 crore ($52 million) investment in Supertech’s 125 acre township project in Gurgaon and Clearwater Capital’s (along with Ajay Piramal Group non-banking financial company PHL Finance) Rs 300 crore ($50.2 million) investment to finance VGN Developers’ acquisition of a land parcel for a gated community project in Chennai.

•          In September ‘13, Kotak Real Estate fund said it had raised $200 million (Rs 1,200 crore) from select group of investors and has firmed commitments to raise $200 million more to close its $400 million eight-year tenure fund to invest in only residential properties in India’s six metros.  The fund will invest an average of $15-20 million in each project and will put in money from the first close in 10-12 projects. It is looking to generate a return of 20 percent for investors of the new fund.

•          PE Firm, Indian Property Advisors Pvt Ltd. (IPAL) is planning two funds – a Rs 300 Cr domestic fund and $250 – 300 million offshore fund, which would be raised in the second quarter of 2014. IPAL would be investing in small redevelopment projects with a turnaround of three years and will only fund for the growth capital.

The company plans to have plain vanilla equity investment rather than a structured deal.

•          Even Tata Realty has put its 780,000 sq ft IT park in Mumbai’s Goregaon suburb on the block and aims to raise Rs 800 crore through the sale of the park, while Oman’s State General Reserve Fund and the Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GIC), investment firm Temasek committed to invest $200 million in HDFC Real Estate Fund.

•          DLF, India’s largest real estate company, had initiated talks with four buyers, including leading private equity (PE) funds, for the sale of Aman Resorts, its luxury hotels chain, said a source involved in the deal. In December 2012, DLF had announced it had sold the entire stake in Aman Resorts for $300 million to Adrian Zecha, the hotel chain’s founder. Sources said Zecha had missed two payment deadlines in March and June, adding he wasn’t able to raise funds for the deal. “Adrian is still in the fray. Being a management buy-out, it is taking time to close. In the meantime, they (DLF) are also in discussions with four other buyers, including some global PE funds that are in various stages of evaluation and diligence,” the sources said. “They are not banking on one buyer for the sale. That is why they’re talking to three-four companies.”

•          The real estate fund of Morgan Stanley has abandoned plans to invest nearly $200 million (about Rs 1,240 crore) in an upcoming commercial real estate project in Mumbai after the rupees recent plunge against the dollar made the deal unrewarding, three people familiar with the development said. Morgan Stanley Real Estate Fund was working on the structured finance deal with Mumbai based Wadhwa Group since January to invest in the latter’s 1.6 million square feet office project in Bandra-Kurla Complex. Construction on the project, called ONE BKC, is due to be completed in the next 12-15 months. The fund has invested about $780 million in Indian real estate so far and the investment in ONE BKC would have been its first in a commercial property in Mumbai. Returns that were arrived at in earlier negotiations between Morgan Stanley and Wadhwa were shrinking even before concluding the deal, one of the people quoted earlier said. The hedging cost for the entire deal would have been huge. Morgan Stanley declined to comment, but Wadhwa Groups chief financial officer Srinivasan Gopalan confirmed that the proposed deal has fallen through. Wadhwa Group is now in process of raising domestic debt of over Rs 1,100 crore from Standard Chartered Bank for the project.

(Sources: First Post 1st August 2;013, Economic Times-26-Sep-2013, Live Mint 19th Sep ’13, Business Standard 28th Sep ’13, 27th July ’13)